Tuesday, September 30, 2008

More background on the sub-prime market

From the NY Times, back in 1999...

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.

[...]

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.

''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.''



http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all


Amazingly prophetic.

And the guy warning that this could all come crashing down is from the American Enterprise Institute. According to Wikipedia...

The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a conservative think tank[....]

AEI has emerged as one of the leading architects of the second Bush administration's public policy.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Enterprise_Institute

Monday, September 29, 2008

Financial crisis blame game

So I saw a video earlier this evening that basically blamed the current financial crisis on Democrats. Particularly, on the Community Reinvestment Act, supported by and passed by Carter in the late 70s, and changes to it instituted by President Clinton in 1995. At first I assumed it was typical Republican propaganda but now I'm starting to wonder.

One of the things I've learned is that back in 2003 the Bush administration wanted to alter the oversight of how the GSEs (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) were operating and to put more of the control over their lending onto the Treasury department rather than HUD, the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Apparently there were concerns in the administration that the GSEs, under direction of HUD, were being too loose in their lending standards to low-income borrowers. From what I've seen and read so far, it was the Democrats who fought this change. Their success in fighting it might be the cornerstone of why we're where we are today.

http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/bank/hba92231.000/hba92231_0f.htm

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=178110-1&showVid=true

Here is Barney Frank (D-MA) during the opening statements:

I want to begin by saying that I am glad to consider the legislation, but I do not think we are facing any kind of a crisis. That is, in my view, the two government sponsored enterprises we are talking about here, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not in a crisis. We have recently had an accounting problem with Freddie Mac that has led to people being dismissed, as appears to be appropriate. I do not think at this point there is a problem with a threat to the Treasury.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have played a very useful role in helping make housing more affordable, both in general through leveraging the mortgage market, and in particular, they have a mission that this Congress has given them in return for some of the arrangements which are of some benefit to them to focus on affordable housing, and that is what I am concerned about here. I believe that we, as the Federal Government, have probably done too little rather than too much to push them to meet the goals of affordable housing and to set reasonable goals. I worry frankly that there is a tension here.

The more people, in my judgment, exaggerate a threat of safety and soundness, the more people conjure up the possibility of serious financial losses to the Treasury, which I do not see. I think we see entities that are fundamentally sound financially and withstand some of the disastrous scenarios. And even if there were a problem, the Federal Government doesn't bail them out. But the more pressure there is there, then the less I think we see in terms of affordable housing.


Rep. Frank is the ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. His sole concern was over affordable housing and didn't seem to have any concern over the solvency of Fannie/Freddie. I skipped ahead a bit and caught this gem, by Maxine Waters (D-CA)...

Fannie Mae has worked with lenders to expand access to low down payment mortgages and to extend financing to those with imperfect credit. These innovations are possible because they are not stifled by an additional layer of government approval.

This morning we have the opportunity to establish the framework of how the government sponsored enterprises, the Federal National Mortgage Association, Fannie Mae, and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Freddie Mac, will be regulated. Fannie Mae, as the number one provider of mortgage funds to low-income families, has been a strong and consistent partner in providing homeownership. Last year they served 2.9 million families in their affordable housing goals, and 1.8 million families were served in their underserved areas, geographically targeted goals.

Nothing has happened with Freddie Mac that has raised any questions about the mission or charters of the two companies. Given housing's importance to the economy and the importance of homeownership to America's families and communities, there should be no interest in changing the GSE's mission.


Later, Treasury Secretary Snow speaks:

First, let me outline the proposal itself, our recommendation. What is the Administration recommending? Well, we recommend that Congress enact legislation to create a new Federal agency to regulate and supervise the financial activities of our housing-related GSEs. Housing finance is so important, it is so far reaching, has such significance to the national economy that we need a strong, world-class regulatory agency to oversee the prudential operations of the GSEs and the safety and the soundness of their financial activities—consistent, however, with maintaining healthy national markets for housing finance, which always has to be a priority.


Oh wow, I'm now writing as I skim the transcript. Check out this gem. First, Rep. Frank:

Let me ask you, Mr. Secretary—and again I appreciate that there is not a lot of rhetoric in here about how terrible these are. I appreciate that you think we should enhance the regulation, but I get the impression that you were talking more about guarding against potential future problems developing, rather than feeling that there is an urgent need to stave off some crisis.

Are we in a crisis now with these entities?


Secretary Snow responds...

No, that is a fair characterization, Congressman Frank, of our position. We are not putting this proposal before you because of some concern over some imminent danger to the financial system for housing; far from it. Rather what we are saying is, since 1992, or whenever it was that OFHEO was established by statute, over a decade ago, these housing markets have developed. ("Getting bigger." Rep Frank interjects.) Huge. Hugely. And those entities have grown and become now very large players on the whole financial landscape of the United States. We just feel it is time to...


Rep. Frank takes over again.

Good. I think it is important to have that, to make it clear that that is the context.

Let me just close by saying, I look forward to this, and I have given you my skepticism. Housing has been my primary issue, affordable housing has been my prime issue, and I need to be convinced. We haven't done as good a job as we should in enforcing those goals, but I will have to be convinced that they won't be at an institutional disadvantage.


All Rep. Frank cares about is that Fannie/Freddie are being encouraged (pushed, one might say) to extend credit to low-income individuals. This is a Finance committee, he is the ranking Democrat, and he doesn't even seem to care if what the GSEs are doing is financially sound. Wow! As long as the crisis isn't short-term, he doesn't care. He's as moronic as those idiot CEOs running financial firms (over-)playing in the sub-prime market... all about votes (profits) now and "screw the future."

Maybe if the Finance Committee had been a little more concerned about the financial well-being of Fannie/Freddie back in 2003 we'd be in a different place today.

Oh, and what did McCain have to say about the proposal when it reached his committee in the Senate two years later.

I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.


Yeah, he was in support of it! Maybe he isn't the crazy old man I thought he was.

Update 9/29/2008: I'm not trying to say that I all of a sudden think the Democrats are wholly to blame for this mess. There is a lot of blame to go around. I'm just amazed to see that the Bush administration tried to do anything to stop it and that it was (at least to some degree) Democrats standing in their way.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

moblogging

This is my first iPhone post! Woot!

We had a debate party Friday evening. Mostly liberal hippy types in attendance. It was a fun event.

During the whole "without preconditions" discussion I staked out a position between the candidates, or so I thought, that we should have active talks a Iran-and-such but that a presidental state visit should be the climax of such efforts and not the kick-off. Somehow almost everybody disagreed with me, even after Obama said the same thing, almost verbatim. I'm glad to see that Barak refined his position. Too bad some people are a bit less flexible.

Monday, July 21, 2008

catching up

Okay, it's been a long while since my last post. So a quick brain dump.

Mortgage Crisis
Egads, this one annoys me. The whole mortgage crisis seems overplayed. Maybe its cause I live in WNY where prices barely rose during the housing boom and are barely dipping now. Or maybe it is cause we live below our means. I dunno. But the media is all about people "losing their homes" because of the mortgage crisis. Say what? If the value of your house goes down doesn't make your mortgage payments go up. If anything, it may make your property taxes go down. Sure, it sucks if you're trying to sell a home, but unless you bought during the boom and are already trying to sell then you're not really losing out. Prices are still nearly universally up over 5, 10, or more years. There are some people who foolishly bought their homes thinking they could then get an home equity loan and now they can't. That does suck, but if you need a loan to make payments on a loan then you already had problems. Anyways.

Tour de France
I don't know what it is about le Tour, but I really like watching it. It is disgusting that there are so damn many dopers among the pros, but other than that, I enjoy it. I'm cheering for Christian Vandevelde and the Schleck brothers. Vandevelde is an American riding for an American team and he seems like a cool guy, so I like him. The Schleck brothers' performance on stage 15 was just awesome... seeing Andy hang in there and sacrifice for his brother like that was impressive. And it worked, Frank took the lead. Its gonna be a good final week. Mark Cavendish has been fun to watch as well... turning on the speed like that after five hours on a bike... wow.

Versus' coverage has been okay... I generally record the live morning broadcast on TiVo, but sometimes I'll catch the evening broadcast. I think Paul and Phil are better commentators than Craig and Bob. Craig is okay, but too... polished. I miss Bob's colorful descriptions of live on le Tour, especially when he talks about slang and stuff.

Maybe not so long between posts, eh. We'll see.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

electronic ballots

The whole electronic ballots/voting thing has been a mess. Most technology professionals are generally in favor of it but we're also wary of it. Doing it securely is hard to do.

I strongly feel that the machine specifications, schematics, and source code should all be publicly available for independent auditing and that there should be a paper audit trail. Some might argue that since we have our entire financial system built around electronic-only transactions how is it not possible to do an electronic vote. It is different. Financial transactions are all logged and traceable. Funds transfers have sources and destinations. Anonymous voting without a paper audit trail is too easy to tamper with.

Because they generally lack the needed audit trails, I and many others are not confident in the security of the existing electronic balloting systems. Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) was working a bill through Congress "that would encourage states to conduct verifiable elections by converting to a paper ballot voting system, offering emergency paper ballots, and conducting hand-counted audits".

This might sound backwards, going from electronic voting to paper voting, and it sorta is. But it is necessary because electronic voting has been approached wrongly and been implemented in an unsafe manner. Sadly this bill died on the floor. You can read more about it in Rep. Holt's press release and you can see how the votes came out on the Office of the Clerk's site. I was pleased to see that my Representative, Lousie Slaughter voted in favor of the bill.

Monday, April 14, 2008

sporter vs Wells Fargo

A few months ago I was looking over some paperwork and I realized that my mortgage company should have dropped PMI over a year ago. PMI is like $45/month and over a year it adds up. So I called them in Feb and was like "hey, I shouldn't be paying PMI". After a few days they got back to me and agreed to eliminate it. I was like "ok, that was easy". Well, it wasn't that easy... I get my next bill and I was still paying PMI. WTF?! So now I'm annoyed and I start a new round of phone calls. First they deny the original finding and they argue that I need a new appraisal. I'm not backing down at this point... I want PMI removed retroactively. I've had about 10 phone calls with them in the last couple months but finally today they wised up and removed PMI retroactively back to when they should have. I had them credit that amount, $625, to the principal. Sweet. Victory for the little guy!

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Am I a Libertarian?

So an old friend of mine remarked the other day "And here I thought you were going to be a Libertarian back in college." This was in response to a blog post I shared that discussed immigration and Paul Krugman's take on it. My response was basically to say that I do consider myself a libertarian (note the little "L"... thats cause the Libertarian party is a bit extreme for me) and that I didn't think that supporting more open immigration was inconsistent with that.

The blog post in question was sort of mocking Krugman for some views that one could argue are inconsistent. I liked it because I really enjoy making fun of political extremists of all stripes. I particularly enjoy liberal-bashing because they tend to think they're so cool... also conservative-bashing is just too easy. :)

The NY Times, in particular, can be entertaining. It cracks me up the efforts they go to to explain how the group that calls themself "al-Quaeda in Iraq" is actually not part of "al-Quaeda" and how they should be referred to as "Al Qaeda in Mesopotami". IMHO they're concerned with making the point that al-Quaeda wasn't in Iraq before we invaded. The Bush administration seems to like to make that area seem more gray than it is and the Times seems to think they have an obligation to clarify that. We get the point already!

I subscribe to the Best of the Web online newsletter from the WSJ OpinionJournal. They really enjoy liberal-bashing and I love to read it. I even occasionally chuckle at BotW itself when their logic falls apart or they engage in the type of blinders-on perspective that is more prevalent among liberals. Conservatives can be funny also.

Economists write some really good blogs. I find that they seem to be logically consistent and economists seem to be more honest about their biases than your regular political opinion blog writers. The post that prompted this whole thing was by Will Wilkinson. He also seems to enjoy finding bias in things that are seemingly objective and pointing out the logical inconsistency or intellectual dishonesty or generally incorrectness of things.

Anyways, I would say I consider myself libertarian, but more than that I try to be objective, practical, and emperical when I look at things from a political perspective. I believe in reason above conservatism, liberalism, or even libertarianism. Now reason doesn't mean there is no room for emotion or value judgements, but that those things need to be a considered input to political decision-making, not the domineering force.

/rant

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

rock climbing

I went rock climbing with Bill, CA, and Nick (a guy Bill met at the gym) after work Monday. It was my first time trying that and it was pretty fun. I took a few pics and snagged some video. I learned that it isn't as generally upper-body intense as I thought it would be, and that my fingers are weak. I guess using a keyboard all day doesn't really build muscle. D'oh. I'll definitely go again.

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Browser Wars - Episode 3,532

So I've been using Safari more over the last few weeks for a couple reasons. It seems to be less of a resource hog than Firefox and it is a bit faster. Firefox seems to do more disk IO than Safari, which is one reason I prefer Safari over Firefox on my laptop (5400 RPM drive) more strongly than on my new iMac. While Safari feels faster in general, Firefox does seem to excel in browser multitasking, when I'm loading several pages at once and swapping between them. I also like Firefox's plugins, namely the Google Browser Sync and the Web Developer Toolbar. XUL in Firefox seems to be one of the culprits behind the slowness, but it is also what makes these plugins work. I used Camino for a while, as it is lighter weight than Firefox but it doesn't have XUL so no plugins. And if I'm going to lose the plugins, I might as well just use Safari. One of my favorite things about Firefox is the setting to open ALL new windows in tabs. Safari doesn't have that option but I found an addon to Safari to add it.

Safari/WebKit development seems as active as Firefox. The debug/develop menu adds lots of cool developer-oriented features, though Firefox still has more powerful addons to support web development, in my opinion. One of my favorite new features in WebKit (though not yet Safari) is full page zoom. Everything scales up/down proportionally... it is awesome. I sit about three feet away from my 24" display at home and I really like browsing everything at +1.

In other browser news, the head of Mozilla is complaining about Apple Software Update being used to distribute Safari. Apparently if you install QuickTime or iTunes on MS Windows it installs Apple Software Update (ASU). ASU keeps QT and iTunes up to date and now that Safari for Windows is out of beta it also installs or updates Safari. The Mozilla guy is complaining that this is unfair and seedy... a sneaky way for Apple to distribute Safari more widely. I can see why he doesn't like it, but I don't think it is as sneaky as he seems to. Apple is at least being internally consistent: Software Update on OS X doesn't just update, it sometimes adds software. The user can opt-out: they don't have to run ASU and you can un-check Safari when you run ASU (though annoyingly it seems like you'll need to uncheck it every time you run it). This is how the industry works: Google Updater does the same thing.
"Google Updater is a one-stop installation location for all of Google's Mac software. You can use the Google Updater to install Google Desktop, Earth, Notifier, Picasa Uploader, and other applications."
http://desktop.google.com/support/mac/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=60103
I haven't seen any complaints from Mozilla about Google Updater. Maybe cause Google partners with Mozilla and Apple competes with them? Hmm...

Update - 3/23: Drew recommended I try the Firefox nightly and ooo, I like it. Darn those browser makers and their continual improvement!